GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 08: A detailed view of a Detroit Lions helmet prior to a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field on January 08, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Lions defeated the Packers 20-16. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Speaking aloud, Chris Johnson mentioned how Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs may end up as the fantasy football team’s top pick in the upcoming campaign.
Jahmyr Gibbs, a rushing back for the Detroit Lions, proved that his rookie strategy was effective as he finished among the top 10 running backs in fantasy football. Nevertheless, despite starting with a lighter workload and missing two games, he was just 28th in the league in carries (182). Based on his per game total during the 15 games he did play, he would have had 206 carries (tied for 22nd in the league) if he had participated in those two games.
After missing two games and taking on more of David Montgomery’s workload from Weeks 7 through 17 of the previous season, Gibbs was the RB3 in both 0.5 and full-point PPR, with nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage (982) and ten total touchdowns (nine rushing).
Chris Johnson, a former NFL running back, gave Gibbs high marks on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s podcast back in November. When asked about a running back in the modern game who reminds him of himself during a recent appearance on the “Behind The Mask” podcast, Johnson used the chance to compliment Gibbs once more.
Gibbs, according to Johnson, “cold.” “That boy is chilly. I had declared him to be the top running back in that draft class even before he was selected. He’s going to lose it, but one thing is for sure: if Detroit had any sense, they would have made him their starting running back.
Chris Johnson points path to Jahmyr Gibbs being the RB1 in fantasy for 2024
To be clear, Montgomery is not going anywhere and the Lions’ offense will always tilt toward the run on a play percentage basis. But Gibbs also had three of his five highest snap shares last season in games Montgomery missed, and overall in the 15 games he played Gibbs played 57 percent of the Lions offensive snaps.
Montgomery had 50 red zone carries last season (tied for fourth-most in the league), while Gibbs had 37 (tied for 10th-most). Five of Gibbs’ 10 rushing scores were from inside of five yards out, so the goal line role was/is not solely Montgomery’s.
A bit of a statistical oddity last year with Gibbs points to untapped upside in 2024. In the six games where he had 13 or more carries, he had three or fewer targets three times, more than 20 receiving yards twice, more than three catches twice and a high of 37 receiving yards. Over the last six games of the season, he had three or fewer targets four times.
So if Gibbs gets more snaps next season, gets more touches overall and his passing game work doesn’t basically evaporate when he gets more carries, so he’s essentially an every down back like Johnson said, even better production than he had as a rookie should follow.
Gibbs has a spot on a list of contenders to dethrone Christian McCaffrey as the RB1 in fantasy football next season, despite his status as a dark horse.
