Leeds United have now reached the climax of the 2023/24 campaign as they prepare to take on Norwich City in the first leg of the play-offs this afternoon.
The Whites travel to Norfolk to take on the Canaries at Carrow Road as they attempt to take an advantage back to Elland Road for the second leg next Thursday night.
They are both competing to secure a place in the final at Wembley later this month, where they will either face Southampton or West Bromwich Albion.
Daniel Farke’s men come into this clash with Norwich off the back of a 2-1 defeat to the Saints on the final day of the regular Championship season at Elland Road.
Adam Armstrong and Will Smallbone scored the goals for the away side to secure all three points, and the German head coach could make some changes to the starting XI from that game to prepare for the Canaries.
Farke must be wary of the threat Gabriel Sara poses in the middle of the park for the home side and should unleash Archie Gray from the start to stop the talented Brazilian.
Who Archie Gray should replace
Leeds must ruthlessly drop Ilia Gruev to the bench for this clash in Norfolk to make space for the teenage sensation to return to the starting lineup.
In the 2-1 loss to Southampton, LeedsLive reporter Beren Cross handed Gruev a match rating of 4/10 for his performance, writing that the ex-Bundesliga maestro looked off the pace and rusty.
That came after the Bulgaria international had a dismal night at Loftus Road away at QPR in the previous match. Cross awarded the lightweight a horrendous match rating of just 2/10, citing his lack of presence in midfield as one of the key issues for the side on the night.
In those two games, Gruev lost nine of his ten ground duels as opposition players found it far too easy to get the better of him in the middle of the park.
He only made two tackles and one interception in those two games and these statistics do not suggest that the former Werder Bremen star is in the right form to be tasked with stopping one of the best midfielders in the league.
Gruev’s defensive work left a lot to be desired against QPR, in particular, as he failed to close down his man quickly enough for both of their first two goals on the night, to go along with his incredibly weak play out of possession across both of the last two fixtures.
Why Leeds must stop Gabriel Sara
The Brazilian magician, Sara, was Norwich’s only inclusion in the Championship Team of the Season, which included Ethan Ampadu, Georginio Rutter, and Crysencio Summerville, and has the quality to cause the Whites big problems.
No Leeds central midfielder scored more than one goal or registered more than three assists in the second tier throughout the regular season, whilst the Canaries star showcased his quality as both a scorer and a creator.
| 23/24 Championship | Gabriel Sara |
|---|---|
| Appearances | 46 |
| Sofascore rating | 7.66 |
| xG | 6.41 |
| Goals | 13 |
| xA | 11.93 |
| Assists | 12 |
| Big chances created | 16 |
| Stats via Sofascore | |
As you can see in the table above, Sara racked up a staggering 25 direct goal contributions in 46 appearances as a central midfielder for Norwich in the second division, playing alongside Kenny McLean – who was a reported target for the Whites last summer.
The left-footed star currently ranks within the top 4% of Championship midfielders for Expected Assisted Goals per 90 (0.26), the top 5% for shot-creating actions per 90 (4.96), and the top 6% for non-penalty goals per 90 (0.29).
These statistics illustrate why it is so important that Leeds do everything in their power to keep him quiet at Carrow Road, and at Elland Road next week, as he has the quality to be a match-winner on his day.
This is why Farke must unleash Gray in the holding midfield position next to Kamara, with Gruev dropped to the bench, as he has the potential to stop the Brazilian sensation in his tracks.
Why Leeds should start Archie Gray
Firstly, the 18-year-old star should be unleashed as his recent form in physical duels suggests he is more likely to come out on top in a battle with Sara, whereas the Bulgarian lightweight has lost nine of his last ten on the deck.
Over his last three appearances for Leeds in the Championship, Gray has won nine of 12 duels in the middle of the park and this suggests that he has the physicality and positioning to dominate opposition players in physical contests.
He also ranks within the top 5% of midfielders in the division this season for dribblers tackled per 90 (1.48) and the top 6% for percentage of dribblers tackled (67%), which illustrates how effective Gray is at stopping players from driving forward with the ball at their feet.
Gray also ranks within the top 9% of his positional peers for tackles won in his team’s defensive third per 90 (1.25), which speaks to how effective the young ace is at stopping opposition attacks near Illan Meslier’s goal.
U23 scout Antonio Mango once hailed the England U21 international as a “defensive monster” whose superb engine and exceptional stamina allow him to press opponents to stop “dangerous” situations.
This suggests that he could have the legs to constantly press Sara when he gets the ball to give the Norwich star as little time as possible in possession.
| 23/24 Championship | Archie Gray |
|---|---|
| Appearances | 44 |
| Starts | 40 |
| Tackles per game | 2.1 |
| Ball recoveries per game | 4.5 |
| Duel success rate | 55% |
| Ground duel success rate | 57% |
| Stats via Sofascore | |
As you can see in the table above, the 6 foot 2 stopper has won the majority of his duels in the Championship so far this season, which shows how strong he has been in battles against opposition players.
Overall, Gray has the defensive and physical abilities to offer a solid presence at the base of the midfield to put a stop to Sara’s wizardry for the Canaries, which is why he should start in an attempt to limit the Brazilian star’s influence on the game, and Gruev should be dropped to make way for him.
Read also: He’d Have Been Proud: Brentford B Dedicate 6-2 Win to Robert Rowan’s Memory
