After falling behind unbeatable Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 in the first leg of their Europa League quarterfinal match, West Ham United may not play in Europe the next season due to their inability to find consistency in the Premier League.
The Hammers have spent the majority of the season in the running for continental qualification, but after losing to Fulham at the London Stadium on Sunday and having David Moyes rest a number of players before the rematch against Leverkusen, they are now eighth in the standings.
While there is plenty of time to recover, Newcastle United thrashed Tottenham Hotspur to take sixth place, while Manchester United’s poor form has not been poor enough to see them fall below the Hammers – Chelsea are also just one point behind in ninth, holding two games in hand.
A fascinating, if nerve-wracking, conclusion awaits, and West Ham must deliver their best effort to make sure that a promising season doesn’t end abruptly.
Even though the team won the Europa Conference League the previous season, their domestic struggles were covered up by their success on the continent. Declan Rice was sold to Arsenal in the summer, so it’s amazing that United is competing at the top of the division after placing 14th.
There are still problems, the most worrying of which is the defensive woes that have caused players like Nayef Aguerd to decline.
The fee West Ham paid for Nayef Aguerd
Aguerd came with high expectations after joining from French team Rennes in a £30 million deal in 2022 to bolster a defense that had been excelling under Moyes’ coaching for the previous two seasons.
The Scottish boss praised Aguerd’s “attitude and character” after he signed, noting that he was one of the most entertaining defenders in the division thanks to his performances in Ligue 1.
After overcoming an ankle injury sustained in the preseason to play 30 games in all competitions and win the Conference League, he was named third in West Ham’s Player of the Season awards for the 2022–2023 campaign, behind Rice and Said Benrahma.
With his aggressive style and aerial supremacy, he is a crucial option for his team and has even been hailed as a “superstar” by journalist Mohamed Salad.
remains, shortcomings that nag at his performances to this day were noted by journalist Zach Lowy the year before he was traded to the English, saying that he “had a good start to last season but still far too raw as a passer & often coughs up possession in dangerous areas”.
Nayef Aguerd’s season in numbers
While Aguerd displayed plenty of promise throughout his first season at West Ham, he has failed to evoke the awe of supporters despite the club seeing a pleasing upswing on the domestic front.
The £50k-per-week defender has completed 21 Premier League fixtures this term but has only started twice across the past eight opportunities, as per Sofascore, having only completed 80% of his passes, made two errors leading to a shot and committing one penalty.
As a result, it would seem that West Ham is prepared to let go of their Moroccan center-half this summer. According to Football Insider, the club may use him as one of its high-profile players.
Aguerd is still a talented centre-back but his error-streaked season has seen Moyes lose faith in his presence, as evidenced by his two Premier League starts from eight games – both of which, it must be said, left much to be desired, with West Ham drawing 2-2 against Burnley in one and slumping to defeat against Fulham, last time out, in the other.
With all this occurring, it’s only natural that his market valuation would take a slide…
Nayef Aguerd’s market value in 2024
According to Football Transfers’ player valuation model, Aguerd is actually worth just £11m at present, a by-product of his seasonal slump and an illustration of the flaws that have been found out in the Premier League.
This depreciation actually marks a 63% decrease in valuation since arriving, and given that he has drifted in and out of Moyes’ starting line-up in recent months, it’s not looking to be the greatest of investments that the club have made.
| Nayef Aguerd: Market Value vs West Ham Teammates | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Market Value | Transfer fee |
| Nayef Aguerd | £11m | £30m |
| Kurt Zouma | £14m | £30m |
| Kalvin Phillips | £13m | n/a |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos | £12m | £19m |
| Maxwel Cornet | £9m | £17.5m |
| Sourced via Football Transfers | ||
It’s worth noting that if Moyes – who is out of contract at West Ham this summer – does not renew his terms, the board may well seek to secure the services of a manager canvassing a more progressive, forward-flowing style of play, and given Aguerd’s issues in regard to his ball-playing, this might not prove fruitful for him.
An effective attacking outlet and a robust challenger, Aguerd ranks among the top 9% of centre-backs across Europe’s top five leagues over the past year for goals scored, the top 19% for shots taken and the top 11% for blocks per 90, as per FBref.
However, he also ranks among the bottom 13% for pass completion, the bottom 38% for progressive passes and the bottom 36% for tackles per 90, highlighting the deficiencies that have alienated him from a regular starting berth over the past several months.
It makes sense that his market value has dropped by £19 million since joining his Premier League side less than two years ago, given how little success he has had this season.
Although Aguerd has enough in his locker to play well for West Ham, the club is unlikely to recoup a sum close to the original investment made to sign him. As a result, Aguerd will likely leave the team with a timid performance.
