Although the Atlanta Braves’ farm system is developing, there are still certain questions we need to ask of those guys.
The Atlanta Braves have a ton of high-ceiling pitchers in their farm system, and the prospect rankings include a number of intriguing position players.
What developmental steps need to be made this upcoming season, given that catchers and pitchers report this week to begin the journey to the 2024 season?
Is there a true shortstop here?
One of the Braves weakest positions, on paper, is at shortstop, with only a few prospects at the most important defensive position in our farm system rankings.
The three players we’re looking at to possibly be the shortstop of the future are Jose Perdomo (#6), Ignacio Alvarez (#7), and Sebin Ceballos (#14), and they’ve all got outstanding questions.
For Alvarez, the biggest question is also the most basic – can he play the position? Drafted as a third baseman out of Riverside City College in 2022’s 5th round, Atlanta didn’t start playing Alvarez at short until the 2nd half of his post-draft debut, when he moved from rookie ball to Single-A Augusta. Opinions are divided amongst the prospect apparatus whether or not Alvarez can stick there, with Baseball America noting that he’ll suffer from foot speed and range concerns at shortstop and speculating that he’s bound to be a third baseman when it’s all said and done.
Ceballos has similar questions to Alvarez about his fit at third base – also a third baseman at college, in Oregon, he doesn’t have the benefit of Alvarez’s 117 professional games at short to begin to provide answers. But with his heritage as a Rawlings Gold Glove winner at third base, there’s going to be an attempt to try him at shortstop in 2024 to see if his preparation and defensive instincts can give Atlanta a future option at the position.
(Notably, both of these guys’ position switches require them to stick at shortstop because they currently neither project as having traditional third base power.)
Since Perdomo hasn’t participated in a professional game yet, it’s more of a question for him. Virtually unknown, Perdomo was signed in January as the star of Atlanta’s international free agency class. This season, he will make his Dominican Summer League debut. If all goes well, we should get to watch him play in the Florida Complex League the following summer.
Can Hurston Waldrep throw enough strikes?
Waldrep finished the 2023 MLB draft season leading all 2023 draftees in innings and strikeouts, and he started for AAA Gwinnett. Waldrep is regarded as Atlanta’s top prospect (or second, depending on who you ask).
A crucial question surrounds the growth of this non-roster invitee to spring training, who appears to be vying for the #5 spot: Is he able to stick in a rotation with enough strikes?
His professional debut was exactly in line with his collegiate results, walking 4.9 batters per nine innings. He had demonstrated elevated walk rates during his college career, offering free passes to 4.2 batters per nine innings.
Only five of the fifty-five “breakout” seasons in Eno’s sample came from pitchers with below-average locations on their primary fastball, and only one came from a pitcher with below-average locations on both their fastball and secondary pitch, most often a slider. New research from Eno Sarris at The Athletic ($) shows that command of the hardest pitch in the arsenal correlates to success early in an MLB career.
Waldrep’s locations – namely, his inability to reliably hit them – are the main issue with his arsenal so far in his career. His one AAA start late last season saw a Stuff+ figure of 116.1 (higher is better, and this is normalized to 100) while his Location+ was only 92.4. He walked three batters in that 4.1 inning outing, striking out five on seventy-five pitches.
Getting away from the numbers and moving to the eye test, this was evident in his highest-profile outing, a College World Series matchup against eventual National Champion LSU. The Gators dismantled the Tigers, winning 24-4, but Waldrep went only 2.1 innings on 83 pitches, allowing three runs on eight hits while walking six batters, putting two more on with HBPs, and throwing a wild pitch.
Waldrep’s inability to reliably throw strikes allowed LSU to load the bases in each of the first three innings, with Waldrep eventually being pulled with only one out in the third. (What’s also devastating is he finished with only two strikeouts in the game, finishing his college career one short of tying the school’s single season strikeout record of 157, set by Alex Faedo in 2017.)
Will Spencer Schwellenbach get more swing and miss?
Being taken by Atlanta in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft out of Nebraska despite needing Tommy John surgery, Schwellenbach returned to game action in 2023. He has a solid year in the lower minors from an ERA perspective, with a 2.49 divided between Single-A Augusta and High-A Rome, but not from a strikeout perspective, with only 7.6 K/9 on the season.
It’s a bit of a surprise to see the control (2.2 BB/9) return before the “stuff”, when it’s usually the other way around after Tommy John, but Schwellenbach flashed his prototypical control while not missing many bats. The pure velocity is good – the fastball was sitting in the upper-90s and touching 99, but he didn’t generate effective spin on either the fastball or his secondaries, a cutter-ish slider and a curveball.
The Braves have had success temporarily “shelving” someone’s curveball to prioritize slider improvements – AJ Smith-Shawver is a great example here – and generating more effective spin via some delivery tweaks could cause the entire arsenal to play up and get him back on the road towards mid-rotation viability.
(It’s worth noting that Schwellenbach’s strikeout and walk rates in his three High-A starts – 9.2 K/9 and 0.7 BB/9 – were both exceptionally good, but it’s also only 13.2 innings and 46 total batters of work, so there’s no way to know if that was increased comfort as he got further away from the procedure or small sample size shenanigans.)
What does J.R. Ritchie look like as he returns from TJ?
Ritchie, who Atlanta took in the 1st round in 2022 and then lost to Tommy John after only 27.2 professional innings, has one of the highest ceilings in the organization but is also more of an unknown than virtually anyone (outside of the international free agents.)
Before the operation, he showed excellent fastball locations and velocity, lots of spin on the slider, and a prospective future addition in the changeup.
However, because the injury ended his first full season after just 13.2 innings, one must have realistic hopes for his comeback. Ritchie has too high of a ceiling and too terrific of stuff, so it’s best to proceed cautiously. His 2024 performance will also help define the farm system’s future tier rankings and reasonable expectations for Atlanta’s group of lower-minors pitchers.
