One of the best pitchers in baseball is on the Atlanta Braves, but his career hasn’t been very fortunate up to this point.
One of the Atlanta Braves’ top players may soon experience a change of fortune, according to the team.
It can’t possibly be much worse given the beginning of his career, can it?
With an ERA of 3.86—which would have been the highest of any Cy Young winner since the award’s creation—Braves starter Spencer Strider finished “only” in fourth place in the NL Cy Young voting despite dominating MLB in 2023—leading the league in strikeouts (281), wins (20), and winning percentage (.800).
Much of it is the result of luck, notably unfavorable luck.
When balls were placed into play, Strider actually led the National League in Fielding Independent Pitching (2.85), suggesting that he was having misfortune.
Shortly referred to as “FIP,” Fielding Independent Pitching is a variant of ERA that solely considers batted balls that are left up to the defense, meaning that it only counts strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.
When a pitcher’s FIP is higher than their ERA, that’s usually a sign that that pitcher’s batted balls are falling at a higher average than usual across the league.
And for Spencer Strider, not only has that been happening, it’s been happening a lot.
Per Codify Baseball, the difference in Strider’s FIP (2.48) versus his ERA (3.37) across his first 50 starts is the highest since baseball switched to overhand pitching in 1884.
That’s one hundred and forty years.
Per research done at FanGraphs, there’s multiple reasons for a discrepancy in FIP and ERA – defense, sequencing, and luck…and apparently none of them are on Strider’s side.
The defense’s role in batted ball events
When attempting to explain the problem, this one seems the most logical, doesn’t it? A pitcher is statistically less likely to have plays go in their favor when facing a bad defense than when facing a “average” defense. During Strider’s first two years in the league, was this a problem?
It was, judging by team and individual ranks!
According to Fielding Bible’s “Defensive Runs Saved” report for 2023, Atlanta ranked 15th overall with 16 DRS. Examining the details, shortstop hits (-13 DRS) and outfield hits (-10), with the exception of Michael Harris II (+8 DRS), were Atlanta’s biggest problems.
To see where Strider’s hits went, let’s look at his spray charts.
Strangely enough, there were plenty of base hits to right and left field, with a concentration in the gaps and surrounding the right fielder’s position.
What’s that we said about Ronald Acuña Jr’s defense? That he significantly underperformed on routine plays, owing to both a poor initial reaction and burst? One look at Strider’s hit chart bears that out, as there’s a much smaller circle of outs around right field than center or left (as well as all four of Strider’s triples allowed being hit to right field).
