Carlos Corberan’s relatively limited tenure as West Brom boss, having arrived at The Hawthorns this time last year, has not been easy.
But the Spaniard almost led the Baggies to the Championship play-offs last season, only to fall short at the penultimate hurdle. Going one step further than last time will obviously be the goal this time, and despite a shaky start to the season, they have a decent opportunity.
The Albion are now 11th in the table with 16 points, having won four times, drawn four times, and lost three times. While it may not have been the ideal start for the manager, the newest Opta Analyst numbers show that he is doing wonders in the dugout.
According to Opta Analyst (12 October), West Brom are outperforming this season and should be 17th in the table based on projected points. At this point in the season, the Midlands outfit had a projected points total of 13.5, compared to their actual points tally of 16.
The expected points model, according to Opta, “simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the xG value of every shot taken.” The simulated number of goals is then used to calculate the match outcome (win/draw/loss).
“Each match is 10,000 times simulated.” The predicted points for each team in each match can then be determined based on the percentage of simulations won/drawn/lost.”
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