Russell Martin fielded a very much backup team against Stoke City, and if the manager sticks with this lineup for Saturday’s away game against Leeds, the play-offs might be imminent.
The Saints game at Elland Road is no longer as important as it once was after Coventry’s victory against Coventry City last night. The Tractor Boys currently lead Leeds by three points and have a plus six goal differential.
Now, some Southampton cynics will argue that Leeds can overcome this because they are playing us and cite our recent trip to Leicester City, but Leeds would still need to hope that Ipswich loses to Huddersfield, as their fellow Yorkshire team is all but relegated and even a victory at Portman Road would need to overcome a goal differential of -15 against Plymouth.
Therefore, it is unlikely that even the most ardent Leeds supporter will go to the game on Saturday in the hopes that a miracle will occur.
What will be Russell Martin’s next move? Will he start his strongest team at Elland Road and hope for it to find its way back to form, or will he start almost entirely a second string, like he did against Stoke?
We had four guys who were legitimate first team starts in our strongest lineup against Stoke: Ryan Fraser, Will Smallbone, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, and Kyle Walker Peters.
Some would contest this, but if we look at the side that went so long unbeaten these 4 were in the starting line up.
So does the manager wrap up members of his squad in cotton wool again this weekend to avoid injury against a Leeds side who will have to go for it and look for goals and then hope for a miracle at Portman Road, or does he put out his best side.
The problem is it could backfire either way, but there is more risk to playing his best XI than not, if he does so, then he not only risks injury to key players, but he risks a further decline in morale and spirit should our best line up lose heavily to Leeds.
This would give them a big boost as both teams head to the play offs.
So I would suspect that Russell Martin will again go for a weakened starting XI on the premise that you cannot lose if you throw the game and if we did win it then we would ourselves have a big boost to our morale.
On the other hand if we played the best side and won, that could kick start the season again and give us a big boost going into the play offs and suddenly the cylinders are all firing again.
It is a tricky decision for the manager, which tactic you would prefer is probably based on your confidence in Martin’s ability to not only pick his best side, but organise and motivate it.
In the other dugout Daniel Farke also has the same dilemma, his side have also dropped off in recent weeks, in fact their form is just as bad as Saints, in the last 7 Championship games they have won just twice, drawn another two and lost three, their 8 points is 2 less than the 10 we have gained in the same 7 game period.
That should give us some hope going into the play offs, Leeds have conceded 13 goals in those 7 games, that is 2 more than the 11 we have let in, in the same period.
Saints fans moan that our side has problems, Leeds are in just as much turmoil.
But they still have something to play for in this game, albeit a very feint hope of a Huddersfield victory and so they will need to go for win or bust and do their job and then pray.
So perhaps Farke will also not put out his best XI, perhaps he to will opt to rest players and not risk injury, but leave his big guns on the bench ready to be brought on if there is good news from Portman Road.
Whatever the line ups I suspect that Sky Sports are probably regretting selecting this game for TV coverage, there will probably be far more excitement at the bottom of the table.
